Tuesday, January 02, 2024
Enchanting Morocco
Thursday, August 11, 2016
Why we are everywhere and why actually we aren't
I have heard a number of statements and claims since I have come to the US regarding how ‘big’ the Indian community here is or how ‘we are everywhere’. I hear how Silicon Valley companies are full of Indians or how Texas and New Jersey makes you feel as if you are in India.
But is this really true? With my sense of history, it just doesn’t feel right.
America is mostly White and Caucasian filled by centuries of migration from Europe and then by Blacks who were brought in as slaves and indentured laborers and Latinos who spread or ran from the south American Spanish colonies. And then came the Chinese laborers during the gold rush and 19th century industrialization and countless other minorities from Asia, Africa & the Pacific. Indians would have been a trickle up until the 1990s mainly because Indians weren’t mass persecuted like the Jews or weren’t running from famines like the Irish. Indians didn’t probably feel the need to travel or couldn’t travel such a distance for doing hard labor like the Chinese who again were escaping persecution. Why Indian’s didn’t migrate is not my point. The point is they didn’t migrate in great numbers to America up until the tech revolution got white collared technology workers on US shores in droves – which brings us back to the hypothesis that ‘Indians are everywhere’.
Let’s see what the US Census has to say. The US uses a catchall term ‘Asians’ to refer to anybody coming from the Asian continent and doesn’t distinguish Indians from Chinese from Koreans. Nevertheless, non-Hispanic Asians makes up only 4.7% of the population. Considering that Chinese have been coming from a far longer periods and it continues to this day, they should be making up a major share of this 4.7%. How much Indians do you think could be here? 1-2%? Maybe.
See US demography
In states where it ‘feels like’ Indians are everywhere, the Asian population is a little higher. California (13%), New Jersey (8.3%), New York (7.3%) with NYC as high as 11.8%. Some other states in which you may feel there are a lot of Indians only have clusters of Asian population density like Austin, TX is at around 6% but overall Texas is only 3.8% Asian
And mind you, all these numbers are for ‘Asians’. The California demographic page on Wikipedia says only 10% of Asians are Indians in California
All the numbers above taken at 10% look pretty small, don’t they?
Right, let’s get down to the ‘feel’ of Indians dominating the tech workforce. Luckily, some of the tech companies released reports giving diversity data for reporting to the equal opportunity commission.
Google – 30% “Asian” for the US workforce. Whatever the Indian population among this 30%, we can’t sure go around shouting that Google has a ‘majority’ of Indians
Linkedin – they combined data for their California, Brazil and Bangalore offices giving Asians 38% but a high of 60% in tech. Including Bangalore doesn’t answer our question though L
Yahoo – doesn’t matter any more as its sold! But it said 57% if US tech employees were Asian
Ebay – their own website says 55% of tech employees are Asian. That falls to 24% overall
Then why is there this ‘feel’?
I have a theory to this ‘feel’ which is 2 fold.
One, humans tend to live and socialize with people from their own background. So Indians tend to make Indian friends, tend to live in localities were there are some other Indians to socialize. We visit Indian grocery stores, frequent theatres which show Hindi movies and then eat at the Indian restaurant nearby. Not to say Indians don’t make non-Indian friends, they surely do. But there is definitely a bias. Ask a non-Indian where one can see Hindi movies. The blank of the face would tell you we aren’t everywhere
And two, our mind just registers and remembers people like ourselves more than it registers other people. I probably remember seeing an Indian on a train rather than a Polish or Japanese. I probably register that there are 3-4 Indian guys sitting around my office floor. I have no idea how many Latinos there are, never bothered to care
So now I know why we are everywhere and why actually we aren’t!
Saturday, July 23, 2016
Dignity
My first travel to the ‘West’ was when I went to London by British Airways. I thought the airhostess was rude, behaved as if she was doing a favor. I visited a pizzeria in London during my trip and I thought the waitress was rude, behaved as if she was doing a favor.
Why did I think so? Because as an Indian, the concept of ‘class’ and ‘privilege’ is ingrained in our minds. A waitress is supposed to talk and behave in a certain way, greet you when you come and when you leave. Say sorry and thank you for everything. Serve you food and basically treat you like a master. There was none of it coming. Although I still think the waitress and the airhostess were rude, the degree to which I think so is far lesser. I wish I have a chance to replay that exact sequence of events and make a re-judgment.
Now in America, I see a similar replay of things every day.
As I played with my son in a nearby park, I was surprised to see the lady who cleaned our house last week playing there with her daughter, in the same park! Imagine that in India and I realized how socially segregated we lived all our lives. The lady demands top dollar, wears clean clothes and we treat each other as equals. (but… kamwali ki ladaki ke saath khelega mera beta?)
The postman, garbage collector, carpenter, electrician, sweeper all work with a sense of pride and self-respect. They keep their head high and you learn to treat them as equals. You exchange ‘Good morning’, ‘Thank you’, ‘Have a nice day’ with all and sundry. There are no servants in most places. No bell boys in budget hotels, no doormen – the kind you see dressed as ‘security’ all across India in front of all sorts of buildings. No ‘salaam sahib’
Of course some of this is attributed to an absence of cheap labor but what it has done is also ingrained a culture of dignity. You can technically get all these services just that they cost a lot so you start questioning it and many a times realize you didn’t need it in the first place.
Not that everything is hunky-dory. Race relations between blacks and whites are at a low, there still is black segregation implicitly in places you live or work while latinos & illegal immigrants do a lot of low paid work. But low is relative, it’s not that low when you compare to Asia.
Dignity of labor treats all humans respectfully and ingrains in you that all work is dignified.
Bottom line? Other than washing & ironing your clothes, cleaning your house and kitchen, polishing your shoes and washing your car you also learn carpentry, plumbing, masonry, wall painting, landscaping & gardening, fixing everything (remember when you opened something as a kid and your uncle said you would be an engineer? Put that to use!)
Or you aspire to become a millionaire so that you don’t have to do all this
And that my friends is the secret of what drives American ambition :-P
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
How difficult can it be to get passport photos at a reasonable price?
This may seem trivial but it’s no joke. US Passports apparently require only 2 photos hence most photo printing services give you 2 photos for a fee of around $13. Side note – photo services are provided by most pharmacies like CVS, Walgreens etc. Yes, pharmacies! Quite a weird business combination!
Enter Indian bureaucracy. It turns out; Indian bureaucracy doesn’t go very well with the United States of Convolution. Indian passport application asks for 6 copies which puts these pharmacies in a spin. Confronted by an Indian asking for 6 copies the only solution they have is 6 copies for $13 X 3 = $39!!
It was going to cost 3 of us $117 and I decided to not bow down to this system.
Step 1: Persuade. Went into a CVS, told him we need 6 copies so he can charge something reasonable for the extra copies. He nodded his head as if he understood. He took the pics, printed them out and then presents me with a $117 bill. I decline, argue, even beg but he chooses to throw away the pics in trash than give it to me for anything less than $117. I walk away.
Step 2: Asked a friend to realize that a particular CVS location does do additional copies for 50 cents each. When we drive 30 minutes to it, the person is available only 9-4 so we may have to come back on a Saturday. And he can’t confirm about the 50 cents trick. Probably something unofficial so we won’t know until we came back on Saturday
Step 3: Asked another friend and came to know that COSTCO (a wholesale discount store) does photos cheap. But we don’t have membership and asking some friend to come along just for that seems a bit too much for a trivial task!
Step 4: Realize that we are in the digital age!! Downloaded a DIY app on the iphone, clicked a picture which the app nicely arranges into a grid of 6 passport photos and print at home. But houses here have dim lighting so having bright light and removing shadows isn’t easy. The Indian passport application has clear instruction saying, “Home printed photos will be rejected”. Wherever they got that from!!
Step 5: Enter a Gujarati colleague who suggests a small shop owned by a fellow Gujarati who can do 6 passport photos for $12. I haven’t loved a Gujarati so much my entire life :)
Thursday, December 24, 2015
My first contact with Mesoamerica
Thursday, August 27, 2015
Why are we always ticking boxes?
Saturday, August 20, 2011
If not for Anna..
Anna's approach of 'My way or the highway' is surely not what fits in a constitutional democracy but what the nation needs today from its leaders is some moral uprightness and not a lesson in civics!
What we need is a truly independent institution which can admit cases, probe them and prove it in the court of law without any sort of political interference. The Lokpal should become a ‘terror’ in the eyes of politicians and bureaucrats alike. The election commission & the judiciary have special places in the constitution (and the only reason politicians fear them) and something similar should be created for the Lokpal.
Agreed, this is not the end all of corruption. No one’s says that. Totally eradicating corruption is a long drawn battle and would involve work on numerous other problems in the country including poverty, education, healthcare, law and order and many more. It’s a complex question which no one institution or law is going to change. But Lokpal could be a first step in that direction.
Technicalities of the law
1) The government is trying to get away by enacting a toothless anit-corruption law which favors the powers that may. The Prime Minister, junior government officials, MPs actions inside the parliament, court judges is out of the ambit of Lokpal. So most corruption in the country (at the lower rungs of bureaucracy), bigger scams which may happen from the PMO (read bofors), cash for votes inside the Parliament etc go scot free. Then those who are caught and tried can go scot free as well if Judges are in your favor and then they couldn’t be investigated by Lokpal. This is making a mockery of the whole idea of Lokpal.
2) Selection of Lokpal members: Govt. says the selection will be made by a committee consisting of the Prime Minister, the leaders of Opposition in both Houses of Parliament, a Supreme Court judge, a high court chief justice, an eminent jurist and an eminent person in public life. The last two is eyewash, so with 3 politicians and 2 pseudo approvers in a group of 7 selectors, you know what is going to happen. In terms of eligibility, the Jan Lokpal disqualifies anybody who has held a government office in the last 2 years, the govt. obviously makes no such reference.
3) Prosecution: The Jan Lokpal suggests that the CBI’s anti-corruption wing should report to the Lokpal while the govt. says Lokpal should have its own prosecution wing – which will obviously have no experience and there will be jurisdictional and other objections raised from time to time, helping those accused. The CBI will remain a govt. puppet.
4) Then the govt.’s bill does not provide for grievance redressal of citizens, protection of whistleblowers, creation of citizen’s charters by public institutions etc.
So it can be clearly seen what the government is trying to do.
1) The Govt. was in a corner with so many corruption cases blowing up in its face and had to show its commitment towards anti-corruption initiatives. It could have taken its own sweet time but Anna’s campaign made it do things quickly.
2) If not for Anna, most of India wouldn’t have known what law was being passed. The government would have tom-tom’ed about their achievement in passing the law and we would have been mute spectators of the hog wash.
3) If not for Anna, the Lokpal would have become (and could still become) just another puppet created in the archaic structure of governance in the country. Remember what the election commission was earlier? It took 40 years and people like TN Session to make that institution what it is today. Same could happen with the Lokpal with it having real tooth somewhere in 2050 after sacrifices by countless individuals.
What this agitation will materially achieve is something time will tell but Anna Hazare has created that ‘hope’ in millions of Indians that something could be done. I see this agitation from a standpoint that the more people agitate, the more bargaining power we have with the government and more chances of catching corrupt officials in the future. That’s it.
Don’t debate Anna’s methods, no person is perfect. Something is better than nothing.
Jai Hind!
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
Real Estate, be Realistic!
Disclaimer: I am NOT saying that real estate is a bad investment. What I am trying to say is Real Estate is just like any other asset class and make an informed bet when you put your life's savings into it. It may bring you handsome returns which no other asset class can but it can also give you lousy returns or worst put you in a debt trap.
The analysis below applies for “Residential Real Estate as an investment”. If you are buying your first home to live in, this is not applicable because then Real Estate for you in NOT an Investment, it’s an EXPENSE!
Returns
Equity diversified mutual funds
An equity diversified mutual funds could give you 15% compounded annual growth (CAGR) over the long term and that too tax free.
i.e. Money doubles every 5 years, i.e. 16 times in 20 years.
Some MFs (Like HDFC Top 200) have even given 25% CAGR from 1995 till today while many have not. If you do a little bit of reading, investing in good MFs and cashing out of lousy funds and investing into good ones from time to time isn’t difficult at all.
Residential Homes
Inflation Index for 1981 –> 100,
Inflation Index for 2009-10 -> 711 i.e. 6.75% CAGR
Real Estate is taxed @ 20% with indexation (considering inflation) or 10% without indexation.
So a property of Rs. 100 if becomes x in 20 years (1981-2010), would be taxed as if its cost price is 711 meaning the tax would be charged only on the appreciation above 711.
Because of the taxation, for real estate to match the expected MF returns, it should grow by 16.65% CAGR over 20 years.
i.e. 2 times in 4.5 years, 16 times in 15.4 years
This is when you have all the money today, in cash.
BUT
Unlike MF Systematic Investment Plans (SIP), Residential Housing is mostly bought with leverage, i.e. with a housing loan of average rate 10% which comes to 7% because of the tax benefits
So For Real Estate to match MF returns, it should grow by 16.65 + 7 = 23.65% CAGR over 20 years.
i.e. 2 times in 3.26 years, 16 times in 13 years!!
Buy real estate if you think it will be 16 times in 13 years.
i.e. the 50 lakh flat you are buying should be 1 Cr in 2013-14, or 8 Cr in 2023 !!!
Rentals
Rental income is minuscule compared to the property value. A 50 lakh (1000 sq. feet) 2 BHK flat in Pune may give you 10k at best, i.e. 1,20,000 per year.
Expenses:
Society Charges: Rs. 2 / Sq. Feet per month (Rs. 24000 per year)
Property tax: Rs. 4 / Sq feet per year (Rs. 4000 per year)
Maintenance / Repairs: Rs. 2000 per year
So Net Rental Income: 120000 – 24000 – 4000 – 2000 = 98,000 per year which is 1.96% per year which is also uncertain as flats remain unoccupied at times.
Interestingly, this rental income does not get compounded as it gets used for other expenses.
Risk
Real Estate has some inherent risks which are significantly more than equity mutual funds
1. Leverage
In Buying a home, you are on a debt of your lifetime, an Equity MF SIP is without debt.
2. Liquidity (How fast can you sell your investment and at what price when you want to) You may think Rates in a locality have risen from say 2500 to 5000 per sq. feet. But that does not mean you can sell your flat at 5000 rate. Just try it!
3. Diversification (not all eggs in one basket)
4. Price Discovery (Getting the right price in the market and not being fooled by a one off price by someone, somewhere)
5. Legalities & Possession (Eventualities like encroachment, irregular records, double selling of a single property etc)
6. Ease of dealing (Buying, selling, storage, renting and broker hassles)
Equity Risks are also great. Managing that risk is a topic in itself but most of it is being transferred to the Mutual Fund; you need to manage the rest.
The ‘Permanent source of income through rent’ argument
It is argued that a house would give me permanent source of income at retirement through rental income.
If you have 50,000 per month to invest,
Option 1:
Buy a house with a home loan at average rate of 10%. Grow it by 23.65% CAGR. Then get 2% rental yield at retirement pre tax.
Option 2:
Put that money thru a SIP in equity. Grow it by 15% CAGR. When you approach retirement, get all accumulated money slowly into debt & bank FDs and get 6 % post tax yield on your money.
No prizes for guessing which is better!
Both asset classes are co-related over a long term
If you believe Real Estate is going to grow no matter what, why do you believe so? The value of Real Estate could be thought of derived from two things.
1. The shelter it provides
2. The access to economic activity it provides
So, the second point actually gives us an idea why property in Mumbai / Pune is growing the way it is today. In the long term, if India grows at 8%, there will be tremendous economic opportunity created which in turn will make real estate costlier everywhere, more so in areas which provide better economic activity.
Enhanced economic activity in turn means growth of companies and hence growth of equity markets and also growth of jobs & salaries.
Speaking of averages, if you think equity markets may fail to give you returns over a 20 year term, don’t expect your real estate to give you returns as well. May be don’t expect your job to be there as well. And then what will happen to your home loan?
Look at Real Estate & Equity returns in USA or Japan over the last 20 years. And you will see clearly what I want to say.
Equity markets and Real Estate markets in the end are both dependent on the Indian growth story.
Conclusion
1. If you want to bet on Real Estate, understand that you are taking a BET, just like any other asset class (like stocks, bonds, Gold etc.).
2. Analyze, understand and invest. The property ought to become 2 times in 5 yrs (if you have cash) or 3.26 yrs(Loan) and 16 times in 20 yrs(cash) or 13 yrs(loan) at least!
3. Don’t over leverage. Too much loans can bring you down.
4. Treat Real Estate as any other asset class. If you wanted to buy 50 lakhs worth of stocks today, won’t you be targeting 15% CAGR over a long term? Think the same when you buy real estate.
5. Real Estate is for real, but the gains may or may not be, beware!
All this requires disciplined investment. Period. Saying that I require a ‘Home Loan Stick’ to make me save 50,000 per month, or it requires an illiquid house as an asset so that I do not sell it off like I would a mutual fund is making a fool of yourself.
Happy Investing!
P.S. I just used some basic concepts like compound interest, income tax and risk/return trade off to analyze the real estate asset class. I may be wrong and would be extremely glad if somebody points out logical errors in the argument. All figures used are approximate.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Road Trip II: Raigad Coast
In October of 2009, we planned to have a biking expedition from Pune to Alibag, Kashid and Murud which is some 160 Kms away. That time we had to cut short our trip due to an emergency and visited only Nagaon and Kashid.
What couldn’t happen in 2009, happened in 2010. I, Nilesh, Alok and Bhagyashree set out for Road Trip II. The Plan: Pune – Srivardhan – Harihareshwar – Murud – Kashid – Alibag – Pune all in 2 days !!
We started on the morning of January 25th, 2010. After having a sumptuous breakfast of pohe and tea at Chandni Chowk, we set out towards Mulshi. We had decided to take the Pirangut – Mulshi – Tamhini Ghat – Nizampur – Mangaon – Morba – Mhasala – Srivardhan route. This can easily be traced through google maps. This is the shortest route into the konkan plains from Pune. After a few snaps at Mulshi Dam and maneuvering through the lonely but beautiful Tamhini ghat, we reached Morba for some tea. Tamhini ghat is extremely lonely and with no visible help of food/fuel or repairs in sight for a long time, it is advisable to cross this section only during day time.
We finally reached Srivardhan at 12:30 PM after travelling 160 Kms. We checked into a home stay for Rs. 450 a room, had some nice fish thali at a local restaurant (Prasad Vichare) and headed for Harihareshwar which is 20 Kms away. Harihareshwar has a famous temple. While the temple is a simple place, there is way through the temple to top of a hill from where you get a spectacular view of the Harihareshwar beach on one side and rocky formations on the other. We also spotted some dolphins from there! As Harihareshwar beach isn’t safe for bathing, we headed back to Srivardhan before sunset to bathe in the sea and enjoy the sunset. It’s amazing that one doesn’t get bored of the beaches how many a times you see them. As the cool sea winds started to soothe our bruised asses, we knew there’s more coming tomorrow :)
We woke up the next day to the sound of children singing patriotic songs early morning. That is when I remembered that it was Republic Day. It is this law of the land which prevails which is allowing us to make such a trip a success!
There are two ways to go from Srivardhan to Murud. One is to reach Dighi Port (20 Kms) and take a jetty to Rajapuri (20 Mins) from where you can go to Murud (another 10 Kms). This is obviously the shorter route. But because of the uncertainty of timings of the jetty, we took the longer route (totally by road) to Murud which is around 60 Kms. The road from Srivardhan to Murud was the most beautiful road in the whole trip. While the initial patches were bad, later on the road became smooth and with the sea view on the left, the bike ride was fantastic!
Murud is a long beach. While the surroundings are great, the beach suffers from deposits of black silt. I would recommend not bathing in this beach as you would get dirty in the silt as you get out of the beach. We had some refreshing lime soda at the beach and then did some beach biking! Yes, as the beach is long and the sand is stiff, you can ride a bike on this beach. After our outing, we decided to have lunch at one of the beach side restaurants. While the food there was good, the service was pathetic. We started for Kashid beach around 2 PM which is just 20 Kms away.
I was horrified looking at the crazy Mumbai-Puneites at Kashid. While the approach road was chock-a-bloc with MH 01 and MH 12 vehicles, the beach resembled something like Juhu! Inspite of the crowd, the beach was good to have our second dip in the ocean J We managed to climb up a nearby place to have a look at Kashid beach from the top and man, what a view it was! I am sure none of the general public knew about this place and we patted ourselves for how smart we were ;)
Now it was 4 PM and it was time to head back. We went towards Alibag, took the city bypass, fueled up once again and headed back at 5 PM. This time we took the Pen-Khopoli-Lonavala route as it was getting dark. While the Pen-Khopoli-Lonavala route was serene, smooth and full of natural beauty, Lonavala – Pune was an example of modern infrastructure at its best making us cruise past 70-80 Kmph to reach Pune by 8 PM. After having some nice Paratha’s at our favorite ‘Aunty’s Parathas’ in Pashan, we came back to the hostel.
It was a bike trip like I had never done before. We travelled for 483 Kms in 2 days visiting 4 beaches and covering the entire Raigad coast. Yes, we felt the pain in the ass more than once but it was all worth it!!
Acknowledgement: While I keep on hearing stories of how GPS is all so helpful in the US, in the absence of any such thing in India, I must say Google Maps has done a fantastic job for helping us plan the trip to perfection with most major towns, roads, turns and distances mentioned accurately. Our trip wouldn’t have been as easy as it was without Google maps :)









